Pakistan’s Naval Dreams Face Stormy Waters Amid Economic Meltdown: Experts Warn of Backfire

At a time when Pakistan's economy is grappling with record-high inflation of nearly 25% and spiralling public debt, Islamabad's decision to increase defence expenditure by almost 20%, allocating PKR 2,550 billion for the fiscal year 2025-26, has raised eyebrows both domestically and internationally. Maritime security analysts point out the striking contradiction between Pakistan's grand naval ambitions and its current financial constraints, highlighting the lack of sustainability in its defence strategy.

Despite its significant socio-economic challenges, the Pakistan Navy has aggressively pursued an ambitious naval modernisation plan, aiming to expand its fleet to 50 advanced ships, including modern submarines and frigates. However, defence experts argue that these aspirations appear unrealistic and exaggerated, given Pakistan's prevailing economic turmoil, limited resources, and reliance on foreign technology.

The core issue is seen as lying in Pakistan's dependence on external technological support, primarily from China and also from Turkey, which raises serious questions about the navy's operational readiness and long-term sustainability. Pakistan's repeated use of manipulated images to falsely claim naval deployments has further eroded trust and credibility internationally, say defence and strategic affairs analysts.

Analysts also suggest that Pakistan's ongoing dependence on Chinese-supplied naval equipment poses significant risks, particularly in terms of maintenance and operational effectiveness, as foreign technologies often require constant external support. Imported military hardware often lacks guaranteed availability, particularly when geopolitical relationships are in flux.

A major constraint identified by defence analysts is the uneven allocation of Pakistan's defence budget. Since 2019, the Pakistan Army has consistently dominated funding with about 47.5% share, followed by the Air Force at 21.3%, while the Navy, the smallest among the services, receives merely 10.8%. Maritime security analysts highlight this disproportionate funding as a key reason behind the Pakistan Navy's limited capability and its struggle to maintain operational effectiveness.

Observers further emphasise that sustainable military capabilities are closely tied to a robust economic foundation, which Pakistan currently lacks. Historical precedents highlight Pakistan's vulnerability arising from reliance on foreign military support. During the 1971 Indo-Pakistan war, Pakistan's expectations of substantial Chinese military intervention never materialised, highlighting the risks inherent in over-dependence on allies, whose support can shift swiftly due to geopolitical considerations.

Defence and security establishment sources highlight the stark contrast between Pakistan's dependency model and India's self-reliance (Atmanirbhar Bharat) policy. With a robust economy, now the fourth largest globally, India has steadily built a broad-based indigenous defence industry, securing strategic independence and sustainable growth.

By contrast, Pakistan predominantly sources affordable but often outdated military hardware from China and North Korea, described by experts as technologically crude, cumbersome, and challenging to manoeuvre. This reliance on low-cost, imported technology severely hampers operational flexibility, analysts note.

Ultimately, maritime security watchers caution that Pakistan's naval ambitions, if pursued without addressing fundamental economic and technological vulnerabilities, are bound to boomerang. The gap between Islamabad's expansive naval rhetoric and reality translates into liabilities, imposing high costs on an already beleaguered nation.